Ireland is only a small state but, then, most of the members states are only small states. So defending the GFA and the peace process is absolutely in line with how the EU sees itself and what it is all about.Ģ. At heart, the EU is fundamentally a peace project. And it didn't adopt that stance out of a desire to be nice to us. We are where we because the EU has adopted and held to the stance it did. However any future relationship treaty will require unanimity, so I suppose in theory we could say that if the WA is concluded over our protests and fails to deliver an open border, we will veto any subsequent FRT.īut, as Zub has said, it won't come to that. Ireland on its own cannot block a qualified majority we would need support from other states. On the EU side, a WA requires approval by (a) a simple majority in the Parliament, and (b) a qualified majority in the Council. Technically, we can't veto a Withdrawal Agreement. If the deal is voted down, then the UK is in totally uncharted waters, it would be the biggest crisis for the UK since WWII. If the need is great enough, then anything is possible, and given that the alternative is no-deal, the need is great indeed. Ultimatly how that sussage is made is TM's problem. It may require convincing / forcing some members of the ERG to toe the line, it might need some cross party support from Labour MP's. We won't know until she agrees a deal with the EU and put's it to the vote. The reality is that we don't know how TM is going to get a deal through Parliament. They’d have to explain jettisoning their convictions to angry Brexit supporters in Tory/leave heartlands, and I don’t quite know how they’d manage that. There’s been a fair amount of talk in this discussion that people expect enough of them to sh*t themselves do a complete about turn after two years ie more of banging the ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ drum. If her whole plan really does rely on the ERG capitulating during the final vote to accept a customs union/partnership/arrangement (I don’t know what the current terminology is) or face the prospect of a no deal Brexit, it’s the no deal Brexit that’s going to prevail. Some may call it apathy, or Brexit fatigue, or just realism. I think that’s got to be accepted now, and by and large it is. Further proof of the stupidity of having a simplistic and binary referendum in the first place.īut May’s withdrawal agreement plan is not going to be put to the public. According to this poll, only 18% would be happy to see Britain crash out with no deal.
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